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Oscar Predictions from FCFF’s Programmer

Oscar Predictions from FCFF’s Programmer 1080 1080 Forest City Film Festival

The Oscars are just a few weeks away, and if you’re looking to get a leg up on your Oscar party predictions contest, you’ve come to the right place. Here’s your cheat sheet of what will, and what could win little gold statues on March 10th.

Last year, Everything Everywhere All At Once swept the ceremony, winning 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture. This year, you can pretty safely bet that Oppenheimer will be doing the same, winning 7 or 8 awards of its own. It looks to be the uncontested frontrunner in Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr, Cinematography, Editing, and Original Score. It will also likely win Best Sound (its biggest competition is The Zone of Interest), and Best Actor for Cillian Murphy (who finds himself facing down Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers). Oppenheimer is sure to be the big winner of the evening, and I would recommend, when in doubt, just pick Oppenheimer.

Some categories that Oppenheimer will likely not win however are Best Adapted Screenplay (which looks like it will likely go to American Fiction, or possibly even Barbie), Supporting Actress for Emily Blunt (which is almost certainly going to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers), Production Design and Costume Design (which is up in the air between Barbie and Poor Things), and Makeup and Hair (which looks like the place for Bradley Cooper’s nose to get an award for Maestro). That means that Oppenheimer will have 6-8 wins out of its 13 nominations. Not bad at all for a small independent film that no one saw (in case it’s not obvious, this should be read sarcastically). 

A few categories that Oppenheimer is not nominated in (so you can’t just default to picking it) are:

Best Actress, which is a tight race between Emma Stone in Poor Things, and Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. It’s a toss-up at this point, though the Screen Actors Guild Awards on February 24th will be the deciding factor. Whoever wins there is a good bet to pick for your Oscar ballot.

Best Original Screenplay, which seems to be going to Anatomy of a Fall with a small chance of an upset from The Holdovers.

Best International Feature, which is a lock for The Zone of Interest

Best Documentary Feature, which is a lock for 20 Days in Mariupol

-Best Animated Feature, which is a tight race between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron.

Best Song, where Billie Eilish looks to win a second Oscar for her Barbie track.

Best Visual Effects, which seems to be the biggest question mark of the night. Odds are, it will be The Creator, but I have a hunch that Godzilla Minus One may take the prize.

No matter what happens on Oscar night, this has been a banner year for the movies, and the rare occasion when the biggest movies of the year are also looking to be the most awarded films at the Oscars. A year that gets audiences back out to experience the magic of movies in the cinema is a year worth celebrating.

If you’re struggling with those short film categories, don’t just pick at random. Trust me when I say, go with Ninety-Five Senses for the Animated Short, and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar for the Live-Action Short. Both films seem close to sure things in their categories. Documentary short is a little trickier. It’s a coin toss between The ABCs of Book Banning, Nai Nai & Wai Po, and The Last Repair Shop. I’m currently leaning towards Nai Nai & Wai Po. Any of those three has equal odds, so pick whatever sounds interesting to you.